Last week Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi told the Financial Times that his country wants to pull out of Somalia.
The Premier’s comments came as a surprise to most because Ethiopia’s previous stance had been to stay in Somalia until the transitional federal government (TFG) was firmly established and took control.
But this is not the first time for Ethiopia to shift its policies. Originally, when Ethiopia entered Somalia early 2006, it had claimed that its stay would last only a short time, which eventually got prolonged to almost two years.
Some months back, when asked what was taking Ethiopia long to leave Somalia, Meles had famously answered “We just can’t leave the people to the wolves.”
And now Ethiopia asserts its will to withdraw its troops from Somalia even if the interim government it set out to install some 20 months ago is still not functioning.
Rashid Abdi, an analyst with the Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG), quoted the prime minister as saying that Ethiopia could no longer afford the financial commitment of maintaining troops in Somalia, Ethiopia being a poor nation with other priorities.
He further exposed Ethiopia’s discontent with the West. In fact, the west offered only a lukewarm political and financial support for an African Union peacekeeping force in Somalia, which barely collected a quarter of the envisaged 8,000 troops.
If Ethiopia deserts it while Somalia remains lawless and violent, it could send the country deeper into a crisis that the UN said has already left 10 million people in need of humanitarian assistance
Observers report that Prime Minister Meles’ main concern at present revolves around two issues: wanting the Somali leaders to take responsibility for stabilizing their country and at the same time guaranteeing Ethiopia’s security if they fail to do so.
Somalia, which has no properly functioning central government since 1991, was invaded by Ethiopia in 2006 under the pretext of ousting an Islamist militia that had taken control of the capital, Mogadishu, and re-installing a transitional government. The withdrawal of Ethiopian troops has been a key demand of the insurgents.
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